Dear Mr Blair

Dear Mr Blair,

 So there are many things I admire in Mr Blair and there are many things I detest. History, unless it is truly distorted, will be the judge. My assessment will always be shaped by his personal ego, which is huge, the way he has courted the rich and famous and financial success. Perhaps he has viewed personal financial success as a means to further his worthwhile causes, but I don’t think so.

 As the Middle East continues to burn in an inferno of uncertainty and unhappiness. We debate the options. Mr Blair cannot leave the subject alone. Should I admire him for his research and obsession with the area? Should I tell him that it is time to stay away.

There are two very important phrases that contradict each other:

 - Practise makes perfect

 - Definition of insanity: Doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different result. 

Which is he doing?

 Tony Blair will always be the brightest student in the class who lacks wisdom, understanding and humanity. He can analyse a problem repeatedly but because of his ego, personality limitations will continually come to the wrong conclusions. If he controlled himself he would be a genius; he doesn’t and therefore an abject intellectual failure. His analysis of the problem misses key details. You begin as Braudel did by looking at the Geography, then the religious makeup of an area; the population and then finally the culture, economics and political system. His analysis lacks this depth.

What must we do? First we must look into ourselves and our countries and what they can sustain and what the people’s priorities are. If we do not have the appetite for a fight, then even if is it the wrong decision you must simply prepare for the coming battle but not fight it before the people are ready. You must simply prepare.

There are three intervention options.

 - Rapid quick and effective intervention: If we trust the alternatives or feel the horrors of leaving the status quo out weigh the potential uncertainty, which will follow, then this is the path.

 - We are capable of being involved for the long-term perhaps a period of 20 years. I am not sure any democracy can make this commitment.

 - If we work with a wide portfolio of the international community, the objective is straight forward and there is a willingness to proceed. This could be democratic or military. Perhaps Economic sanctions.

 Crucially though if the people are not ready, then we have to prepare. Sometimes there is no choice but to prepare for the future battle. The future is uncertain, the battle may not come but you cannot fight battles before their time. Blair in his arrogance assumes, because of his analysis, he can stop future battles and he understands what the key issues will be. Unfortunately Mr Blair you are not special, you are not a genius accept it and start using your great brain to make the right decisions instead of trying to beat life. That is his mistake and he never seems to learn. You are not smarter than everyone; you are simply human, sometimes right and sometimes wrong. After all Mr Blair you were just a Lawyer; an effectively, highly skilled articulate actor. If you could accept your limitations then perhaps you might realise your potential.

 So what do we do about the Middle East.We assess the situation our options, work out what the people are prepared for and then act. It might not be what we want, might not be what we believe in but sometimes you have to accept the reality of life It is not a Holloywood movie Mr Blair accept it. 

To a certain extent unless the birth rate in the middle east begins to drop then it will continue to burn, to his credit Mr Blair is funding education, however, with high birth rates, instability will continue to flourish. There is no long term solution, there are only activities we can undertake to minimise its impact. We can encourage education, birth control, fair governance, legitimacy, economic development, limit arms proliferation but unless a clear thinking individual who inspires the youth arrives then instability will continue.

 They have to make their mistakes we can only try and limit the suffering by simple, sensible and pragmatic policies. We may stumble across the solution but there is no silver bullet and we don’t really know the solutions, therefore limited intervention and simple clear policies is the only path. Mr Blair doesn’t understand this as we always rate ourselves and our own intelligence too highly. 

Kind regards,

 Ordinary.