Nassim Taleb annoys me, he has adopted sound bites appropriate for the modern world in his recent contributed to the FT. I actually broadly agree with his statements, but I find his style annoying and arrogant. He fails to challenge himself, to admit where he has doubt, to show some kind of uncertainty, he has become what he criticezes.
A sign of true intellect is balancing one's argument and showing doubt. That is the difference between a politician and an academic or between a wise politician and someone like Tony Blair. Tony Blair the cleverest idiot on planet earth, a man with no life experience and no wisdom. He is a clever man searching for a cause yet he doesn't have the wisdom of life experience to find a worthy cause. His life will be one of personal failure however rich he may become.
Now here is a brain a man to listen to Mr Paul Kennedy. His book, 'The Rise and Fall of Great Powers' is an insightful modern classic and as a man that makes his living working in the US it is refreshing to hear him discussing what can be learnt from Marx. Karl Marx was a great thinker about problems he should have shied away from solutions.
http://dev.www.tmsfeatures.com/columns/political/international/paul-kennedy/25561319.html?articleURL=http://rss.tmsfeatures.com/websvc-bin/rss_story_read.cgi?resid=200903311159TMS_____PKENNEDY_ctnpk-a_20090331
The tectonic plates are moving the great power shift is happening in our time, however, will it mean anything if this planet decides to evict us.
There was a dog that was swept overboard in Australia:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7986816.stm
It quickly reverted to surviving and then back to being a well trained house dog. Would we be able to make the switch so easily if the planet decides to exact her punishment. There are no free tickets in life and these beautiful constructed arguments from Taleb, Marx and Kennedy will mean nout if this planet decides that there are too many people and the eco system begins to collapse.
Where will their years of study leave us?
As Jared Diamond notes in his study of the Greenland Danish, who starved to death, the rich were the last to starve but starve they still did and their wealth offered little protection. I would add to that our elite academics with their beautiful theories, their books for consolation will not be the first to starve, but starve they will.
I wish great brains would step outside the human focus of their arguments, theories and look more holistically at the planet and how we can exist and function with a productive economy a stable population in balance with the planet.
Fundamentally the only economics that works involves wreaking havoc on the planet and environment. In the West that cost is much more carefully hidden. The most powerful countries are largely the most polluting and those with the largest populations. Until this paradigm is broken:
more people= more wealth=more growth = power and strength so i can tell you what to do we have a severe problem.
If we don't find a solution to this then the planet will. As James Lovelock notes, the earth has survived greater challenges, but have we?
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