So Mr Fry is without doubt a very nice man, thoughtful at times, intelligent, sometimes witty although often over complicates his humour and doesn't just say something instinctive so it feels contrived but certainly reasonably witty yet he is annoying... why?
He has announced to the world he suffers from bi-polar, he has done shows about depression does that truly really help anyone. It is a problem that people have, that is difficult and challenging as he mentioned Churchill had it but didn't he get on with life. He didn't tell people, is it right that we put everything in front of people, doesn't that tend to make us feel sorry for ourselves, doesn't it make us more likely to accept it?
Someone is being mean to him, Christ Churchill had depression and led the country against the Nazis come on Stephen don't slide into self pity. Am i being too hard i don't know.
What bothers me most about Stephen is jealousy, he has travelled around the world, he is free, he has money, he can make movies, he can act, he can write, he can read, he can influence people yet what does he do? What does he truly do? He worries about himself and his depression. I say Stephen get on with it. You are incredibly lucky go write a book, go make a film, don't leave twitter because people are being mean, do it because you have a brain and should be writing something meaningful, you are a decent human being with a seriously good brain do something with meaning, then perhaps you will feel better.
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Depressed - The BBC, State of the World and Marx
So it is with some sadness that the reality of the situation confronts me. Humans we are intrinsically selfish and self serving. Remove some of the fierce structure of religion and deep seated moral training from childhood and we revert to type, we are fundamentally selfish. The BBC, employers of vast numbers of highly educated liberal and otherwise worthy types is also a centre for massive abuse of public money, where the acquisition of personal comfort and wealth has become an obsession.
They exploit every legal loophole to prevent the public from knowing the true extent of waste. Presenters, who are supposed to be defenders of democracy, have their snouts in the trough of tax payers money. They are one and the same of as the fat cats that sit atop the city banks plundering every last penny, overcharging customers exploiting their oligopoly status.
There is no god of that i truly believe, but is a godless valueless society able to function when the rich or those in a position to be self serving exploit the system so brazenly and extensively. When our most educated, those with access to perhaps the most liberal and broad ranging education in history are so self serving then is Richard Dawkins truly correct. We are a selfish animal and we need some common values and a necessary obligation of duty, perhaps we do need religion.
We have lost that obligation now, and our elite exploit it in every walk of life, in every position irrespective of background and education. The elite at the BBC are no better than the Eastern European mafia, or the city investment bosses, they are one and the same self serving homo sapiens. Those at the BBC may be able to justify it much more and feel they are serving the public by going to war zones, and some will be very brave and heroic, most though are simply after number one and exploiting the system for every last penny they can. The scale and ruthlessness are on a different scale to that of the Mafia but in one way it is far worse the scale of their mendacity, self denial and pomposity.
Mr Dawkins you should write a book titled the Selfish Ape as we truly are and Marx you are wrong as you fundamentally misjudged human nature. We are the naked, selfish ape, held together by the most fragile of means, by the force of our belief, religion and national structures. These are prone to crumble and break and we revert to our fundamentally selfish, self seeking nature and this happens in every environment, culture and country. There we are stripped naked. We are capable of amazing acts of sacrifice when there are strong bonds of loyalty, belief, and conviction, when these disappear we are not left with much and no amount of education seems to prevent our worst traits from dominating.
They exploit every legal loophole to prevent the public from knowing the true extent of waste. Presenters, who are supposed to be defenders of democracy, have their snouts in the trough of tax payers money. They are one and the same of as the fat cats that sit atop the city banks plundering every last penny, overcharging customers exploiting their oligopoly status.
There is no god of that i truly believe, but is a godless valueless society able to function when the rich or those in a position to be self serving exploit the system so brazenly and extensively. When our most educated, those with access to perhaps the most liberal and broad ranging education in history are so self serving then is Richard Dawkins truly correct. We are a selfish animal and we need some common values and a necessary obligation of duty, perhaps we do need religion.
We have lost that obligation now, and our elite exploit it in every walk of life, in every position irrespective of background and education. The elite at the BBC are no better than the Eastern European mafia, or the city investment bosses, they are one and the same self serving homo sapiens. Those at the BBC may be able to justify it much more and feel they are serving the public by going to war zones, and some will be very brave and heroic, most though are simply after number one and exploiting the system for every last penny they can. The scale and ruthlessness are on a different scale to that of the Mafia but in one way it is far worse the scale of their mendacity, self denial and pomposity.
Mr Dawkins you should write a book titled the Selfish Ape as we truly are and Marx you are wrong as you fundamentally misjudged human nature. We are the naked, selfish ape, held together by the most fragile of means, by the force of our belief, religion and national structures. These are prone to crumble and break and we revert to our fundamentally selfish, self seeking nature and this happens in every environment, culture and country. There we are stripped naked. We are capable of amazing acts of sacrifice when there are strong bonds of loyalty, belief, and conviction, when these disappear we are not left with much and no amount of education seems to prevent our worst traits from dominating.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
A matter of intelligence.
What is intelligence, we think every day and we are labeled in one way or another people continually make judgments, but around us the world never quite matches up to our thoughts and ideas. Clever people do stupid things, dumb people make some astute observations. There are broadly several types as far as i can see:
- Memory and the ability to memorize details.
- Ability to to see through detail and pick out the pertinent points in an argument.
- Wisdom the ability to learn from experience and apply it to your decision making.
- Ability to digest a complex problem with many sides and facets and work through and apply techniques of analysis to it such as mathematics.
We simplify to make the world understandable, to allow us to function and progress, we ignore pain and suffering to allow ourselves to move on, i live in relative comfort in a European country whilst in the world people are being tortured murdered and killed.
So i read about scientific solutions to fix the problems of global warming they are talking about putting a hose spewing volcanic particles into the atmosphere, apparently some guy who Bill Gates thinks is the most intelligent guy he ever met... well that already shows a crass lack of wisdom, how many humans do we truly meet who have all the intelligence skills, zero or close to zero and they are never the types who spent years at large corporations.
Geeks should be praised for their contribution to humanity and that men in sheds have given us what we have today, yet let's never forget that the most difficult skill to acquire is wisdom and that the problem which afflicts highly intelligent individuals is arrogance, they sometimes don't step back and reflect.
So the most complex system on planet earth they think they can fix with a hosepipe into the atmosphere, perhaps they have created the cheapest weapon of war, it ignores some basic ideas. Global warming is part of the equation which involves, population, consumption, declining resources... idiots, bloody idiots... damn these highly educated Harvard types and their inability to know their own limitations, their lack of understanding of the limits of their own intelligence.....
Thanks for the contribution guys but criticize what it lacks, show us also why it is a bad idea as well, put both sides, talk about the whole problem, how are you going to solve population, declining food stocks.. good start but must do better and acknowledge in some ways you lack wisdom and go and see James Lovelock.......
- Memory and the ability to memorize details.
- Ability to to see through detail and pick out the pertinent points in an argument.
- Wisdom the ability to learn from experience and apply it to your decision making.
- Ability to digest a complex problem with many sides and facets and work through and apply techniques of analysis to it such as mathematics.
We simplify to make the world understandable, to allow us to function and progress, we ignore pain and suffering to allow ourselves to move on, i live in relative comfort in a European country whilst in the world people are being tortured murdered and killed.
So i read about scientific solutions to fix the problems of global warming they are talking about putting a hose spewing volcanic particles into the atmosphere, apparently some guy who Bill Gates thinks is the most intelligent guy he ever met... well that already shows a crass lack of wisdom, how many humans do we truly meet who have all the intelligence skills, zero or close to zero and they are never the types who spent years at large corporations.
Geeks should be praised for their contribution to humanity and that men in sheds have given us what we have today, yet let's never forget that the most difficult skill to acquire is wisdom and that the problem which afflicts highly intelligent individuals is arrogance, they sometimes don't step back and reflect.
So the most complex system on planet earth they think they can fix with a hosepipe into the atmosphere, perhaps they have created the cheapest weapon of war, it ignores some basic ideas. Global warming is part of the equation which involves, population, consumption, declining resources... idiots, bloody idiots... damn these highly educated Harvard types and their inability to know their own limitations, their lack of understanding of the limits of their own intelligence.....
Thanks for the contribution guys but criticize what it lacks, show us also why it is a bad idea as well, put both sides, talk about the whole problem, how are you going to solve population, declining food stocks.. good start but must do better and acknowledge in some ways you lack wisdom and go and see James Lovelock.......
Sunday, September 06, 2009
The Hollowing of the UK Economy
The journalists scribble away worrying about interest rates, we must get out of recession quickly, the housing bubble yet beneath the surface the tectonic plates begin to move, the UK as a leading country is finished and will struggle as a middle ranking country.
The power of finance the drug that means the government is unable to take the radical action required, the slave to the city means that the UK is literally giving away its knowledge capital to India. Why as the requirement to drive down costs means too much is being shipped overseas. In some companies now they are losing the ability to run their own systems, without which they cannot function, we are losing the skills to be able to build them in the future, we must drive down costs the slave to the city the short term requirement means we are sentencing our children to increased poverty.
Wipro/TCS names that the average man on the street will not know, they will be running the country soon and unlike wiser heads in France and Germany less a slave to the city, we will be suffering higher costs as they push them up or in many ways they will simply cut out the middleman. The government with its debts unable to operate independently and take the long-term view, the UK becoming a second rate power, and not just losing its knowledge capital giving it away for a few years of lower costs before they jack up the prices.
Does it all matter really? I guess not but crass stupidity and short sightedness is depressing to see, watch and follow. The power of the city, Britain's cash cow, yet now driving the country to give away its knowledge capital, keeping Britain short term, keeping the pound over valued, helping to destroy manufacturing, forcing the UK to give up its greatest companies, making Britain poorer.
Yet we are all to blame the welfare state built over many years, now a huge financial burden we will do anything to maintain and keep it even if it means selling the house, the car and the very organs that keep us and the country running. We are a slave to the city and the welfare state, who would have thought the polar opposites would drive us in the same direction. The welfare state drives us into the arms of finance who hate it and it makes us short term and makes us give everything away.
The power of finance the drug that means the government is unable to take the radical action required, the slave to the city means that the UK is literally giving away its knowledge capital to India. Why as the requirement to drive down costs means too much is being shipped overseas. In some companies now they are losing the ability to run their own systems, without which they cannot function, we are losing the skills to be able to build them in the future, we must drive down costs the slave to the city the short term requirement means we are sentencing our children to increased poverty.
Wipro/TCS names that the average man on the street will not know, they will be running the country soon and unlike wiser heads in France and Germany less a slave to the city, we will be suffering higher costs as they push them up or in many ways they will simply cut out the middleman. The government with its debts unable to operate independently and take the long-term view, the UK becoming a second rate power, and not just losing its knowledge capital giving it away for a few years of lower costs before they jack up the prices.
Does it all matter really? I guess not but crass stupidity and short sightedness is depressing to see, watch and follow. The power of the city, Britain's cash cow, yet now driving the country to give away its knowledge capital, keeping Britain short term, keeping the pound over valued, helping to destroy manufacturing, forcing the UK to give up its greatest companies, making Britain poorer.
Yet we are all to blame the welfare state built over many years, now a huge financial burden we will do anything to maintain and keep it even if it means selling the house, the car and the very organs that keep us and the country running. We are a slave to the city and the welfare state, who would have thought the polar opposites would drive us in the same direction. The welfare state drives us into the arms of finance who hate it and it makes us short term and makes us give everything away.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Oh the Optimists
Why won't the debate progress a little. We always get the people who say there have always been end of the world theories that never happened. Duh.... are you capable of looking at history a little longer than a twenty year period. 1347 or around that depending on which part of the world you lived in. Thirty percent of the population of Europe gone... was that not an end of the world period.
South America witnessing the arrival of the gun and germ carrying conquistadors... some people say 90% of the population of the Americas disappeared. Was that not the end of the world scenario?
Catastrophes on a mega scale happen and they happen repeatedly, so let's not stray down the Malthus said it would happen and it didn't. Malthus has been right, just look at Rwanda, the most densely populated country in Africa. Globally he was wrong, but he may yet have his day although i pray he won't, as i am sure he would. Oh and those that constantly criticize Malthus don't forget his massive influence on a young Darwin, somebody those very same people look up to.
So now stop the end of the world theories are stupid they never happen, to bad things happen, and they have what are our main worries. What are the risks, what can we do about it.
The main thing we have to do all over the world is moderate population increase, we have to promote family planning, if we do that one thing we have a chance. How can we solve the world's problems whether they be drug use, poverty, child labour, fish stocks imploding, the chopping down of the rain forest if population continues exploding. We have to moderate population increase and promote family planning, so do your bit for the planet, for your children, and your own long term future and promote it whenever you are with a person of influence, without it we might as well forget about global warming, and carbon emissions, it will be for worthless.
So do your bit for this planet
South America witnessing the arrival of the gun and germ carrying conquistadors... some people say 90% of the population of the Americas disappeared. Was that not the end of the world scenario?
Catastrophes on a mega scale happen and they happen repeatedly, so let's not stray down the Malthus said it would happen and it didn't. Malthus has been right, just look at Rwanda, the most densely populated country in Africa. Globally he was wrong, but he may yet have his day although i pray he won't, as i am sure he would. Oh and those that constantly criticize Malthus don't forget his massive influence on a young Darwin, somebody those very same people look up to.
So now stop the end of the world theories are stupid they never happen, to bad things happen, and they have what are our main worries. What are the risks, what can we do about it.
The main thing we have to do all over the world is moderate population increase, we have to promote family planning, if we do that one thing we have a chance. How can we solve the world's problems whether they be drug use, poverty, child labour, fish stocks imploding, the chopping down of the rain forest if population continues exploding. We have to moderate population increase and promote family planning, so do your bit for the planet, for your children, and your own long term future and promote it whenever you are with a person of influence, without it we might as well forget about global warming, and carbon emissions, it will be for worthless.
So do your bit for this planet
Friday, July 10, 2009
What do you do when down - Read Darwin
So I can't face reading about the state of the world, I almost can't pick up a newspaper at the moment as so few people seem to be really thinking about the great problem of our age Earth management. They don't realize that without resources to sustain population, whether it be food, oil, fish or sheer living space we will turn on each other. We have repeatedly in the past.
So Obama visits Ghana, we talk about human rights, extremely important, but if we don't manage this earth all the our beautiful freedoms will disappear. So we have a conundrum; Democracy and freedom are based on mass bribery of always more yet always more is killing the planet or the life that we require to sustain us.
So it is all so obvious you go to any busy location with lots of humans and just watch and then wonder can this be sustained with minimal regard and thought for the earth?
So I read Darwin, or the voyage of the Beagle to take me to another time and another Earth. Oh he would weep now, if he were to take the same journey now, the tears would flow down his cheeks.
I watched some skate boarders the other evening they were being photographed in a concrete jungle with graffiti. That is all we will have left, the people will not be able to amaze at nature, it may look green in areas, but nothing much of any size will live. So we will be left photographing humans, doing something as mundane as skate boarding not a killer whale chasing a seal.
Everywhere he saw life, everywhere...
In all the noise of the Internet will this make a difference, will I be able to influence someone with far superior prose and connections than me? Probably not the odds are very small.
Well I have Charles for the duration of the book and then there will be another book, and perhaps just perhaps someone might stumble across this blog and think about the Earth a little, I hope so. We can but hope...
So Obama visits Ghana, we talk about human rights, extremely important, but if we don't manage this earth all the our beautiful freedoms will disappear. So we have a conundrum; Democracy and freedom are based on mass bribery of always more yet always more is killing the planet or the life that we require to sustain us.
So it is all so obvious you go to any busy location with lots of humans and just watch and then wonder can this be sustained with minimal regard and thought for the earth?
So I read Darwin, or the voyage of the Beagle to take me to another time and another Earth. Oh he would weep now, if he were to take the same journey now, the tears would flow down his cheeks.
I watched some skate boarders the other evening they were being photographed in a concrete jungle with graffiti. That is all we will have left, the people will not be able to amaze at nature, it may look green in areas, but nothing much of any size will live. So we will be left photographing humans, doing something as mundane as skate boarding not a killer whale chasing a seal.
Everywhere he saw life, everywhere...
In all the noise of the Internet will this make a difference, will I be able to influence someone with far superior prose and connections than me? Probably not the odds are very small.
Well I have Charles for the duration of the book and then there will be another book, and perhaps just perhaps someone might stumble across this blog and think about the Earth a little, I hope so. We can but hope...
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
Depressed State of the world
I am incredibly depressed as I write this. I went diving in the med brought by locals who knew an area yet there were hardly any fish, could have been coincidence perhaps yet I did this years ago and there were swarms of fish.
I spoke to the locals there are much less fish now, squid gone...
We are killing this planet let's not beat around the bush, she is dying slowly, or life is. We are going through a massive amount of species extinction, polluting the planet, chopping down the habitat. Talking about global warming is stupid; the subject should be Earth management.
She is dying around us yet, most of the elite seem to have little complete grasp of the larger issue. Mr. Lawson the absolute idiot to think he had an important job writes a 120 page book, was he too lazy to spend a bit more time on it discusses that one issue. You miss the point Mr. Lawson you tried cooking? You might do a better job. If you are going to think on this issue do it properly and think of the whole problem. Whether global warming does or doesn't happen we need to manage this planet which equals:
Habitat protection. What are all the services it provides us? Can we just turn everything to farm land or will it have other effects?
Are we likely to run out of water can desalination help? Which countries will that effect?
Are we polluting and over fishing the seas endangering humans that survive off fish primarily? Is farmed fish really a solution?
Is the world getting warmer what are the effects?
What drives the agricultural revolution is that sustainable at ever greater population levels?
Morally should we allow the great extinction event to continue? Is it possible to prevent?
Which animals can we afford to lose for our own self preservation? Are we sure of all the effects of the myriad of others that are dying out?
Is our life style sustainable at ever increased population and consumption levels?
Earth management is the question.
Like most people I have friends I don't want to isolate myself I have a normal job so I hold all this worry anger and depression inside and I write to strangers in the hope I might incite some clever people to begin thinking about the challenge of our age. We are all so polite. I am actually thinking of going up to strangers and giving them an information sheet, standing outside universities and giving them an information sheet as I want to see the elite thinking about this problem and reading.
I left an information sheet in a bookshop the other day with a reading list and why as I hope I may incite some people eventually to begin reading some of the important books.
I met a girl doing a masters in Ecology she didn't know about the Columbia Earth Institute, she hadn't read any Jared Diamond, didn't know Jeffrey Sachs I mean for f*&k sake what are we teaching people. Why do we let our elite off so lightly read for Christ sake, read about these problems before it is too late, especially as you are doing Ecology and if you are going to write about it Mr. Lawson, even if you think it will all be great look at the whole problem and stop acting like an educated idiot.
I read something the other day and he said if it doesn't feel right it probably isn't right, go to a large sporting event, concert or even a busy beach and watch the people with their mass consumption, mobile phones, designer clothes they throw away, the cans thrown to one side and then think can this really go on? Does it feel right to abuse the planet so? Are there really free rides in the universe?
I spoke to the locals there are much less fish now, squid gone...
We are killing this planet let's not beat around the bush, she is dying slowly, or life is. We are going through a massive amount of species extinction, polluting the planet, chopping down the habitat. Talking about global warming is stupid; the subject should be Earth management.
She is dying around us yet, most of the elite seem to have little complete grasp of the larger issue. Mr. Lawson the absolute idiot to think he had an important job writes a 120 page book, was he too lazy to spend a bit more time on it discusses that one issue. You miss the point Mr. Lawson you tried cooking? You might do a better job. If you are going to think on this issue do it properly and think of the whole problem. Whether global warming does or doesn't happen we need to manage this planet which equals:
Habitat protection. What are all the services it provides us? Can we just turn everything to farm land or will it have other effects?
Are we likely to run out of water can desalination help? Which countries will that effect?
Are we polluting and over fishing the seas endangering humans that survive off fish primarily? Is farmed fish really a solution?
Is the world getting warmer what are the effects?
What drives the agricultural revolution is that sustainable at ever greater population levels?
Morally should we allow the great extinction event to continue? Is it possible to prevent?
Which animals can we afford to lose for our own self preservation? Are we sure of all the effects of the myriad of others that are dying out?
Is our life style sustainable at ever increased population and consumption levels?
Earth management is the question.
Like most people I have friends I don't want to isolate myself I have a normal job so I hold all this worry anger and depression inside and I write to strangers in the hope I might incite some clever people to begin thinking about the challenge of our age. We are all so polite. I am actually thinking of going up to strangers and giving them an information sheet, standing outside universities and giving them an information sheet as I want to see the elite thinking about this problem and reading.
I left an information sheet in a bookshop the other day with a reading list and why as I hope I may incite some people eventually to begin reading some of the important books.
I met a girl doing a masters in Ecology she didn't know about the Columbia Earth Institute, she hadn't read any Jared Diamond, didn't know Jeffrey Sachs I mean for f*&k sake what are we teaching people. Why do we let our elite off so lightly read for Christ sake, read about these problems before it is too late, especially as you are doing Ecology and if you are going to write about it Mr. Lawson, even if you think it will all be great look at the whole problem and stop acting like an educated idiot.
I read something the other day and he said if it doesn't feel right it probably isn't right, go to a large sporting event, concert or even a busy beach and watch the people with their mass consumption, mobile phones, designer clothes they throw away, the cans thrown to one side and then think can this really go on? Does it feel right to abuse the planet so? Are there really free rides in the universe?
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Michael Jackson Dead
So he has gone. Someone that was always around in your life, either his music or strange pictures and stories. The press abuse and in a way he was too successful we don't always like people who are too good, they make us realize our own inadequacies. He was too good. The fans may have loved him but the media never did.
I truly don't believe he would abuse any child, you feel it when you watch an interview or you watch him, i am sure he was naive and spent too much time with children not thinking how it could be exploited. You can see people almost pushing their kids to be around him an opportunity a free ticket.
I am most saddened though that there was no one there for him, to help prevent his excesses. He had a good heart, he was probably a bit spoilt sometimes, yet no one was there to stop his extravagances why? In his family, so large, there are bound to be some really caring wonderful people and i am sure a few bad apples i wouldn't want to speculate which ones are which.
People made millions out of him, everyone did, how many people let greed get the better of them around Michael? We are terrible as humans he was adored and hated for his talent and his extraordinary success and when we see something that can truly be exploited, whether it is a good woman getting more money from her husband than she truly should, or someone with access to Michael's talent not thinking what was good for him, perhaps lying to themselves and now we see the result.
On the other hand as well as been exploited, you can see how he may have driven people away. He hadn't lived a normal life so he would be difficult to socialize with perhaps a little immature. He suddenly left home in the early 80s, massive success, he may have been impulsive and childish in his mood swings and a little unpredicatable. I can only guess at the details, however, he was not normal or socially aware and that would have created barriers. You never saw him socializing or heard stories about him him going for a meal with someone or other.
As a hunter gatherer we were meant to exist in small bands dependent on each other, not above the band and able to survive easily without it. Mega stardom is not something we were created to manage. Suddenly you are above everything, you don't need to answer to anybody, because you can buy whatever you required, including phoney friends. This has only recently existed man has spent most of his time struggling to eat, and needing other people to work with to accomplish that.It distorts the way we were meant to live and makes them feel above the rules of nature, able to do and live anyway they want. I don't like that friend well i can do without him or her, i don't like that girl, i will get another, these friends are boring me, i will get some more, i can smash up the hotel and just pay the fine... all these things are stabilizers they are suddenly gone and this naive little boy got lost and no one was there for him. Did he drive away those that mattered, or were those that mattered too scared to help, or did they have too much vested interest? We will never know..
I heard someone saying the simplest thing about MJ, he made a lot of people happy and he was truly talented no doubt and for that we should be saddened. He gave a lot to us, and perhaps didn't get as much in return ultimately.
I truly don't believe he would abuse any child, you feel it when you watch an interview or you watch him, i am sure he was naive and spent too much time with children not thinking how it could be exploited. You can see people almost pushing their kids to be around him an opportunity a free ticket.
I am most saddened though that there was no one there for him, to help prevent his excesses. He had a good heart, he was probably a bit spoilt sometimes, yet no one was there to stop his extravagances why? In his family, so large, there are bound to be some really caring wonderful people and i am sure a few bad apples i wouldn't want to speculate which ones are which.
People made millions out of him, everyone did, how many people let greed get the better of them around Michael? We are terrible as humans he was adored and hated for his talent and his extraordinary success and when we see something that can truly be exploited, whether it is a good woman getting more money from her husband than she truly should, or someone with access to Michael's talent not thinking what was good for him, perhaps lying to themselves and now we see the result.
On the other hand as well as been exploited, you can see how he may have driven people away. He hadn't lived a normal life so he would be difficult to socialize with perhaps a little immature. He suddenly left home in the early 80s, massive success, he may have been impulsive and childish in his mood swings and a little unpredicatable. I can only guess at the details, however, he was not normal or socially aware and that would have created barriers. You never saw him socializing or heard stories about him him going for a meal with someone or other.
As a hunter gatherer we were meant to exist in small bands dependent on each other, not above the band and able to survive easily without it. Mega stardom is not something we were created to manage. Suddenly you are above everything, you don't need to answer to anybody, because you can buy whatever you required, including phoney friends. This has only recently existed man has spent most of his time struggling to eat, and needing other people to work with to accomplish that.It distorts the way we were meant to live and makes them feel above the rules of nature, able to do and live anyway they want. I don't like that friend well i can do without him or her, i don't like that girl, i will get another, these friends are boring me, i will get some more, i can smash up the hotel and just pay the fine... all these things are stabilizers they are suddenly gone and this naive little boy got lost and no one was there for him. Did he drive away those that mattered, or were those that mattered too scared to help, or did they have too much vested interest? We will never know..
I heard someone saying the simplest thing about MJ, he made a lot of people happy and he was truly talented no doubt and for that we should be saddened. He gave a lot to us, and perhaps didn't get as much in return ultimately.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Obama's Love\ The Naked Ape
So people around the Obama's are jealous we are told of their surprisingly romantic relationship. We look around us and any thinking person must sometimes despair there are so many needy people in the world, yet it takes a zoologist and not an economist or a musician to really help us understand the world and who we are.
Everyone should read the naked ape, and not forget as he so beautifully points out that for most of our existence we have operated in small nomadic bands and not in huge cities.
We are designed a certain way, our reaction in relationships are for a reason. Some people are very fortunate like the Obama's to find true happiness but they are still like the rest of us just naked apes.
We have sex in a different way to other animals and we have the pair bonding for a reason, we must bring up children, and our sexuality helps bind us together, but was meant for small bands not cities with all the temptation that surrounds us.
So as we look at the problems which beset us, as people wonder about the solutions like the naked ape we are we seem to turn to simple solutions and cling to them desperately in the East they turn to extreme religion with the hollow promises it seems to give.
Here we cling to the concept that democracy as it seems so just and fair, it must be the right solution, let's truly hope it can come up with it. As someone that enjoys the freedoms of a modern society i do hope so.
Everyone should read the naked ape, and not forget as he so beautifully points out that for most of our existence we have operated in small nomadic bands and not in huge cities.
We are designed a certain way, our reaction in relationships are for a reason. Some people are very fortunate like the Obama's to find true happiness but they are still like the rest of us just naked apes.
We have sex in a different way to other animals and we have the pair bonding for a reason, we must bring up children, and our sexuality helps bind us together, but was meant for small bands not cities with all the temptation that surrounds us.
So as we look at the problems which beset us, as people wonder about the solutions like the naked ape we are we seem to turn to simple solutions and cling to them desperately in the East they turn to extreme religion with the hollow promises it seems to give.
Here we cling to the concept that democracy as it seems so just and fair, it must be the right solution, let's truly hope it can come up with it. As someone that enjoys the freedoms of a modern society i do hope so.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Small percents matter
There is only a two percent difference between us and our nearest relative the chimpanzee, yet over 5 million years the differences between the two creatures are simply astounding. If there is a two percent difference between us and a chimp then the difference between you and a genius, a criminal and the most stupid person on planet earth is even smaller.
So now the great leaders of the world gather, the press like rabid packs of dogs feast on any piece of news, the public turn their worries from larger issues to the simpler ones in life, the economy, the extension of the can I feed my family which has now become can I provide them with what we expect from life.
Economists and journalists write narrowly on interest rates, the influence of Marx the rise of China and how we can avoid the great depression and as a consequence a great war. The tectonic plates are shifting, economic power is shifting but will any of it really matter?
We have an economy based on ever more, we have an expanding population who want ever more and we have a stressed planet. Are we heading to Armageddon? People have written about it for centuries and they say it never happens well it does happen, and it happens repeatedly. In ad 100 Population plummeted as our bodies struggled to fight the bacteria and diseases which were jumping from animals to humans and spread around a loosely globalized Eurasia. This decline in population lasted for around 300\400 years.
The world doesn't end but the world as you know it and the norms that you expected can be radically transformed. Armageddon happened for the dinosaurs after a meteor struck planet earth leading to the rise of the mammals.
The Mongols riding from the East butchered and wrecked the agriculture of present day Iraq the consequences they still live with and of course the black death struck Europe in the 1340s laying waste to our populations. Much later isolated populations came into contact with those disease hardened Eurasians and if the guns didn't kill them the germs more often than not did as Europeans swept through the new world.
So yes Armageddon does happen, radical changes do.
The world isn't currently effected by small percents over long time frames it is suffering large percent changes over extremely short time frames, something it will find extremely difficult to react to. World population is still increasing and has about trebled since 1950. These are massive increases and can only end one way which is huge increases in global tension.
So idiots worry about the falling Russian population, there can be nothing better for the stability of the world now than to see a naturally falling population, except it means lower economic growth, if lower economic growth allows your grandchildren to avoid global war, conflict and Armageddon then perhaps it is no bad thing.
People continually talk about the potential for human ingenuity and innovation to save us. God if another idiot talks about innovation as if it can solve every problem on planet I think I will eat my right hand, but they always forget we operate with in constraints, and there is a pace of innovation and there are always problems which are not solved for generations. We cannot hope to solve every problem and every situation unless we deal with fundamentals. We need to learn to accept lower growth, have smaller families and try to live more harmoniously with the planet. If we do these simple things then perhaps innovation will truly help us without it innovation doesn't have a hope.
So small percents can make a huge difference over time, but sudden shocks and changes do happen and as the politicians fret over a changed world and small percentage drops in growth, rises in unemployment are they missing the bigger picture and will democracy be able to deal with the challenges we are likely to face?
Could I be wrong, well of course as prediction is notoriously difficult perhaps we will truly innovate our way out of our conundrum or perhaps it will simply happen later. Malthus will always have his day again it is just a question of judging when and where and on what scale.
So now the great leaders of the world gather, the press like rabid packs of dogs feast on any piece of news, the public turn their worries from larger issues to the simpler ones in life, the economy, the extension of the can I feed my family which has now become can I provide them with what we expect from life.
Economists and journalists write narrowly on interest rates, the influence of Marx the rise of China and how we can avoid the great depression and as a consequence a great war. The tectonic plates are shifting, economic power is shifting but will any of it really matter?
We have an economy based on ever more, we have an expanding population who want ever more and we have a stressed planet. Are we heading to Armageddon? People have written about it for centuries and they say it never happens well it does happen, and it happens repeatedly. In ad 100 Population plummeted as our bodies struggled to fight the bacteria and diseases which were jumping from animals to humans and spread around a loosely globalized Eurasia. This decline in population lasted for around 300\400 years.
The world doesn't end but the world as you know it and the norms that you expected can be radically transformed. Armageddon happened for the dinosaurs after a meteor struck planet earth leading to the rise of the mammals.
The Mongols riding from the East butchered and wrecked the agriculture of present day Iraq the consequences they still live with and of course the black death struck Europe in the 1340s laying waste to our populations. Much later isolated populations came into contact with those disease hardened Eurasians and if the guns didn't kill them the germs more often than not did as Europeans swept through the new world.
So yes Armageddon does happen, radical changes do.
The world isn't currently effected by small percents over long time frames it is suffering large percent changes over extremely short time frames, something it will find extremely difficult to react to. World population is still increasing and has about trebled since 1950. These are massive increases and can only end one way which is huge increases in global tension.
So idiots worry about the falling Russian population, there can be nothing better for the stability of the world now than to see a naturally falling population, except it means lower economic growth, if lower economic growth allows your grandchildren to avoid global war, conflict and Armageddon then perhaps it is no bad thing.
People continually talk about the potential for human ingenuity and innovation to save us. God if another idiot talks about innovation as if it can solve every problem on planet I think I will eat my right hand, but they always forget we operate with in constraints, and there is a pace of innovation and there are always problems which are not solved for generations. We cannot hope to solve every problem and every situation unless we deal with fundamentals. We need to learn to accept lower growth, have smaller families and try to live more harmoniously with the planet. If we do these simple things then perhaps innovation will truly help us without it innovation doesn't have a hope.
So small percents can make a huge difference over time, but sudden shocks and changes do happen and as the politicians fret over a changed world and small percentage drops in growth, rises in unemployment are they missing the bigger picture and will democracy be able to deal with the challenges we are likely to face?
Could I be wrong, well of course as prediction is notoriously difficult perhaps we will truly innovate our way out of our conundrum or perhaps it will simply happen later. Malthus will always have his day again it is just a question of judging when and where and on what scale.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Paul Kennedy\ Black Swan
Nassim Taleb annoys me, he has adopted sound bites appropriate for the modern world in his recent contributed to the FT. I actually broadly agree with his statements, but I find his style annoying and arrogant. He fails to challenge himself, to admit where he has doubt, to show some kind of uncertainty, he has become what he criticezes.
A sign of true intellect is balancing one's argument and showing doubt. That is the difference between a politician and an academic or between a wise politician and someone like Tony Blair. Tony Blair the cleverest idiot on planet earth, a man with no life experience and no wisdom. He is a clever man searching for a cause yet he doesn't have the wisdom of life experience to find a worthy cause. His life will be one of personal failure however rich he may become.
Now here is a brain a man to listen to Mr Paul Kennedy. His book, 'The Rise and Fall of Great Powers' is an insightful modern classic and as a man that makes his living working in the US it is refreshing to hear him discussing what can be learnt from Marx. Karl Marx was a great thinker about problems he should have shied away from solutions.
http://dev.www.tmsfeatures.com/columns/political/international/paul-kennedy/25561319.html?articleURL=http://rss.tmsfeatures.com/websvc-bin/rss_story_read.cgi?resid=200903311159TMS_____PKENNEDY_ctnpk-a_20090331
The tectonic plates are moving the great power shift is happening in our time, however, will it mean anything if this planet decides to evict us.
There was a dog that was swept overboard in Australia:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7986816.stm
It quickly reverted to surviving and then back to being a well trained house dog. Would we be able to make the switch so easily if the planet decides to exact her punishment. There are no free tickets in life and these beautiful constructed arguments from Taleb, Marx and Kennedy will mean nout if this planet decides that there are too many people and the eco system begins to collapse.
Where will their years of study leave us?
As Jared Diamond notes in his study of the Greenland Danish, who starved to death, the rich were the last to starve but starve they still did and their wealth offered little protection. I would add to that our elite academics with their beautiful theories, their books for consolation will not be the first to starve, but starve they will.
I wish great brains would step outside the human focus of their arguments, theories and look more holistically at the planet and how we can exist and function with a productive economy a stable population in balance with the planet.
Fundamentally the only economics that works involves wreaking havoc on the planet and environment. In the West that cost is much more carefully hidden. The most powerful countries are largely the most polluting and those with the largest populations. Until this paradigm is broken:
more people= more wealth=more growth = power and strength so i can tell you what to do we have a severe problem.
If we don't find a solution to this then the planet will. As James Lovelock notes, the earth has survived greater challenges, but have we?
A sign of true intellect is balancing one's argument and showing doubt. That is the difference between a politician and an academic or between a wise politician and someone like Tony Blair. Tony Blair the cleverest idiot on planet earth, a man with no life experience and no wisdom. He is a clever man searching for a cause yet he doesn't have the wisdom of life experience to find a worthy cause. His life will be one of personal failure however rich he may become.
Now here is a brain a man to listen to Mr Paul Kennedy. His book, 'The Rise and Fall of Great Powers' is an insightful modern classic and as a man that makes his living working in the US it is refreshing to hear him discussing what can be learnt from Marx. Karl Marx was a great thinker about problems he should have shied away from solutions.
http://dev.www.tmsfeatures.com/columns/political/international/paul-kennedy/25561319.html?articleURL=http://rss.tmsfeatures.com/websvc-bin/rss_story_read.cgi?resid=200903311159TMS_____PKENNEDY_ctnpk-a_20090331
The tectonic plates are moving the great power shift is happening in our time, however, will it mean anything if this planet decides to evict us.
There was a dog that was swept overboard in Australia:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7986816.stm
It quickly reverted to surviving and then back to being a well trained house dog. Would we be able to make the switch so easily if the planet decides to exact her punishment. There are no free tickets in life and these beautiful constructed arguments from Taleb, Marx and Kennedy will mean nout if this planet decides that there are too many people and the eco system begins to collapse.
Where will their years of study leave us?
As Jared Diamond notes in his study of the Greenland Danish, who starved to death, the rich were the last to starve but starve they still did and their wealth offered little protection. I would add to that our elite academics with their beautiful theories, their books for consolation will not be the first to starve, but starve they will.
I wish great brains would step outside the human focus of their arguments, theories and look more holistically at the planet and how we can exist and function with a productive economy a stable population in balance with the planet.
Fundamentally the only economics that works involves wreaking havoc on the planet and environment. In the West that cost is much more carefully hidden. The most powerful countries are largely the most polluting and those with the largest populations. Until this paradigm is broken:
more people= more wealth=more growth = power and strength so i can tell you what to do we have a severe problem.
If we don't find a solution to this then the planet will. As James Lovelock notes, the earth has survived greater challenges, but have we?
Monday, March 09, 2009
The True End of History\ The End Of Economics?
I don't believe in God, I don't believe in karma, yet I have the intrinsic human belief that I am here for a reason and to witness something. It is on a rational level completely stupid and perhaps connected to the human need to feel our lives have some worth.
So I do wonder as I read a rather poorly written book about humanity, and in between mentally improving his annoying English, I pick up facts about man.
What is modern economics fundamentally based upon?
It is based on more people, more consumption, more more.....
Is this collapse in the financial system symptomatic of something greater. We can debate the Israel\Palestine conflict for years, but isn't it basically a problem of space. Two very different races of people who feel slighted are trying to live in very close proximity. What would have happend in prehistoric times? There would have been an all mighty fight and one tribe would have annihilated the other or one of them would have simply moved out in the great expanse of earth. We are running out of space and tension is rising.
Can we carry on producing more, when the effects devastate the world? Can population carry on increasing when we struggle to support and feed those new arrivals and deliver the standard of living expected?
We are still an Animal, we shit, we eat, we procreate. We may paint our faces, we may hide our toilet habits, have sex in private, mostly, we try to distance ourselves from the animal kingdom but we can never escape what we are. We live in cities which are largely devoid of diverse life, we may rarely venture into the wilderness and few of us could survive there yet as hard as we may try and escape it, we are still an animal.
Has this animal reached its limits?
Are we about to descend into chaos as we struggle to deliver food to the masses as the world becomes hotter and arable land decreases. I do wonder. Are we killing the goose in our need for ever more.
Politicians hang to global warming like their small stupid brains are incapable of thinking of the bigger picture, perhaps they are right as it is too scary. It is man's effect on the environment that is critical, man's requirements to consume ever more, man's need to have ever greater numbers of people on the planet.
So I do wonder as I read a rather poorly written book about humanity, and in between mentally improving his annoying English, I pick up facts about man.
What is modern economics fundamentally based upon?
It is based on more people, more consumption, more more.....
Is this collapse in the financial system symptomatic of something greater. We can debate the Israel\Palestine conflict for years, but isn't it basically a problem of space. Two very different races of people who feel slighted are trying to live in very close proximity. What would have happend in prehistoric times? There would have been an all mighty fight and one tribe would have annihilated the other or one of them would have simply moved out in the great expanse of earth. We are running out of space and tension is rising.
Can we carry on producing more, when the effects devastate the world? Can population carry on increasing when we struggle to support and feed those new arrivals and deliver the standard of living expected?
We are still an Animal, we shit, we eat, we procreate. We may paint our faces, we may hide our toilet habits, have sex in private, mostly, we try to distance ourselves from the animal kingdom but we can never escape what we are. We live in cities which are largely devoid of diverse life, we may rarely venture into the wilderness and few of us could survive there yet as hard as we may try and escape it, we are still an animal.
Has this animal reached its limits?
Are we about to descend into chaos as we struggle to deliver food to the masses as the world becomes hotter and arable land decreases. I do wonder. Are we killing the goose in our need for ever more.
Politicians hang to global warming like their small stupid brains are incapable of thinking of the bigger picture, perhaps they are right as it is too scary. It is man's effect on the environment that is critical, man's requirements to consume ever more, man's need to have ever greater numbers of people on the planet.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
The Progress of Knowledge
The Polymath isn't dead and there are still great men around who are able to contribute towards the development of knowledge in a number of key areas. The modern world, though, is one where specialists predomoninate and with the progress of time it can be increasingly difficult for people to have a broad grasp of their own particular subject and we are often pushed into ever narrower areas.
There is danger to society in this dependence and if society struggled to produce them for a period of time most of our modern world would collapse. We should never forget that even though we live in a time of plenty, our cities are only a matter of weeks from starvation. How many of us have stocks of tins in our cupboards like previous generations? Having people with a broader knowledge base and less dependent on specialists ensures socieity is more robust, whereas ours is increasingly fragile.
It also means those with great brains, of ilk of Thomas Young from a few hundred years ago, are unable to contribute as they once would have, although, you could argue we have more educated people now so it should deliver us more great brains. They still will typically contribute in only one area whereas in the past we would have had a much broader benefit from their genius.
The additional problem is that everywhere in many ways the knowledge base of an individual is shrinking and it is often acceptable to be ignorant. Creativity is often driven, in my view, by someone that can bring a new way of looking at problem, a new angle or perhaps something they have seen in a different area or study or analysis. We are losing the cross fertilization that has helped make previous epochs creative and this is exacerbated by the increasing specialization of the modern wold.
There is danger to society in this dependence and if society struggled to produce them for a period of time most of our modern world would collapse. We should never forget that even though we live in a time of plenty, our cities are only a matter of weeks from starvation. How many of us have stocks of tins in our cupboards like previous generations? Having people with a broader knowledge base and less dependent on specialists ensures socieity is more robust, whereas ours is increasingly fragile.
It also means those with great brains, of ilk of Thomas Young from a few hundred years ago, are unable to contribute as they once would have, although, you could argue we have more educated people now so it should deliver us more great brains. They still will typically contribute in only one area whereas in the past we would have had a much broader benefit from their genius.
The additional problem is that everywhere in many ways the knowledge base of an individual is shrinking and it is often acceptable to be ignorant. Creativity is often driven, in my view, by someone that can bring a new way of looking at problem, a new angle or perhaps something they have seen in a different area or study or analysis. We are losing the cross fertilization that has helped make previous epochs creative and this is exacerbated by the increasing specialization of the modern wold.
Monday, February 02, 2009
Gaia James Lovelock
I read voraciously. If I have one talent it is my ability to read at speed like few people I know. Most people don't read and sometimes I worry that the capacity to read books may slowly whither. I was so impressed with the Chinese PM, I think it was the PM, who said he reread the Wealth of Nations. How many of these gurus we have to listen to have actually picked up the Wealth of Nations?
I love to live, but i also feel it should be a duty for us if we have time and a brain to spend some of it thinking about something serious. I laugh at the French and their pretentiousness, occasionally showing off their knowledge, but also think it is perhaps better than the British pride in what we don't know.
So the two authors I would like to hear in conversation are Jared Diamond and James Lovelock. I recently read one of James Lovelock's books and he is clear thinking with a willingness to challenge himself by considering the unthinkable.
Now his core prediction and yes he has made a prediction Mr Taleb, we shouldn't predict, that billions of us may die this century as Gaia takes her revenge. He uses the phrase Gaia to evoke the image of a living planet as opposed to one of those lifeless rocks that inhabits our solar system.
At a simple level something intrinsically feels right about what he is saying in terms of there are no free rides in life and surely for the abuse we have heaped on mother earth, how we have exploited her then surely there must be some payback. We unthinkingly buy another mobile phone, drive miles to see someone, burn fuel visiting some far off country, throw our rubbish on the floor, waste, waste waste, waste....
So what will be the payback and will we be able to flee to another country that remains unaffected. That is the key. Throughout history we have been able, or the lucky ones have been able to flee the problems afflicting a country. There has always been a safe haven and the idea of I can escape to a better life has existed, once in that country then you remain relatively protected from the more local problem.
Perhaps the only time this was not applicable was with the great plague and occasionally with a war which has been more total, however, for much of history there may have been a great war but if you were a little farmer in the middle of nowhere, unless you were really unlucky life just went on, so we have remained largely local in our thinking as we have been able to. One could discuss this for hours and my little theory probably misses loads of important details, the fact remains we are very locally orientated.
Now if Gaia takes her revenge, if the global planet system begins to collapse like some of the societies that Jared Diamond looked at what would happen to us. Would we become a squabbling rabble or would some part of the world escape so they could assert some kind of structure on the world. Would we turn on each other setting off nuclear weapons, where will we be?
The scary thing is the scientists simply don't know. The Earth system is too complex to truly know what our impact on our beautiful planet has been, and how she might react. We may have been lucky and done something to help her, delaying the problems for later, the system as far as i can see is really too complex to model correctly so they have to make assumptions some of which may be wrong. At at a simple level, however, there will be payback, of that i am certain and what will it be I wonder? Is Mr Lovelock right, or is he simply more pessimistic given his age? Could he be right will billions of us die? Will large parts of the world become a waste land?
I think it is time to take that drink, take that person out you always fancied, tell the people important what you always wanted to, visit that place you always dreamed of and read that book you always said you would, because this century could be payback century and I am scared. Mr Taleb this is something you should think about predicting with your fractals rather than the movement of stocks.
Taleb views our world as living in extremistan whereby most key events do not not live around the average therefore, applying the bell curve is a waste of time we need to use fractals which scale IE they look the same what ever the scale you use unlike the bell curve which has extreme events as becoming increasingly unlikely. Unfortunately he uses his theories to think about stocks and making money sad really.
Finally for the Economists and their obsessions with interest rates, growth rates, unemployment, innovation for god sake people, stop for one second and think. Where is mother Earth in this concept, where is she? When did you last sit in a field and look at her? Economics and ever greater growth and consumption is dead if she doesn't die then she will kill us all.
I love to live, but i also feel it should be a duty for us if we have time and a brain to spend some of it thinking about something serious. I laugh at the French and their pretentiousness, occasionally showing off their knowledge, but also think it is perhaps better than the British pride in what we don't know.
So the two authors I would like to hear in conversation are Jared Diamond and James Lovelock. I recently read one of James Lovelock's books and he is clear thinking with a willingness to challenge himself by considering the unthinkable.
Now his core prediction and yes he has made a prediction Mr Taleb, we shouldn't predict, that billions of us may die this century as Gaia takes her revenge. He uses the phrase Gaia to evoke the image of a living planet as opposed to one of those lifeless rocks that inhabits our solar system.
At a simple level something intrinsically feels right about what he is saying in terms of there are no free rides in life and surely for the abuse we have heaped on mother earth, how we have exploited her then surely there must be some payback. We unthinkingly buy another mobile phone, drive miles to see someone, burn fuel visiting some far off country, throw our rubbish on the floor, waste, waste waste, waste....
So what will be the payback and will we be able to flee to another country that remains unaffected. That is the key. Throughout history we have been able, or the lucky ones have been able to flee the problems afflicting a country. There has always been a safe haven and the idea of I can escape to a better life has existed, once in that country then you remain relatively protected from the more local problem.
Perhaps the only time this was not applicable was with the great plague and occasionally with a war which has been more total, however, for much of history there may have been a great war but if you were a little farmer in the middle of nowhere, unless you were really unlucky life just went on, so we have remained largely local in our thinking as we have been able to. One could discuss this for hours and my little theory probably misses loads of important details, the fact remains we are very locally orientated.
Now if Gaia takes her revenge, if the global planet system begins to collapse like some of the societies that Jared Diamond looked at what would happen to us. Would we become a squabbling rabble or would some part of the world escape so they could assert some kind of structure on the world. Would we turn on each other setting off nuclear weapons, where will we be?
The scary thing is the scientists simply don't know. The Earth system is too complex to truly know what our impact on our beautiful planet has been, and how she might react. We may have been lucky and done something to help her, delaying the problems for later, the system as far as i can see is really too complex to model correctly so they have to make assumptions some of which may be wrong. At at a simple level, however, there will be payback, of that i am certain and what will it be I wonder? Is Mr Lovelock right, or is he simply more pessimistic given his age? Could he be right will billions of us die? Will large parts of the world become a waste land?
I think it is time to take that drink, take that person out you always fancied, tell the people important what you always wanted to, visit that place you always dreamed of and read that book you always said you would, because this century could be payback century and I am scared. Mr Taleb this is something you should think about predicting with your fractals rather than the movement of stocks.
Taleb views our world as living in extremistan whereby most key events do not not live around the average therefore, applying the bell curve is a waste of time we need to use fractals which scale IE they look the same what ever the scale you use unlike the bell curve which has extreme events as becoming increasingly unlikely. Unfortunately he uses his theories to think about stocks and making money sad really.
Finally for the Economists and their obsessions with interest rates, growth rates, unemployment, innovation for god sake people, stop for one second and think. Where is mother Earth in this concept, where is she? When did you last sit in a field and look at her? Economics and ever greater growth and consumption is dead if she doesn't die then she will kill us all.
Friday, January 23, 2009
The Stories we should tell.
So the world changes and life seems to move so quickly, I listen to all these idiots trying to peer into the future by looking at the tea leaves of economic data. The mass hysteria which seems to be gripping the media seems to be missing the point and really makes me worry that democracy is finished. The panic that seems to be gripping the government just seems to reflect it.
So let's set one thing straight, Japan in the 90s was not economic Armageddon if I hear one more idiot discussing how we need to avoid Japan's situation like it was the worst thing for a millennium I think I might hurt myself. It had issues with moderately rising unemployment loss in wealth due to depreciating asset values but IT WAS NOT a basket case. For Christ sake folks the UK in the 70s was in a far worse condition.
Second thing we need to set straight is that many of the imbalances in the economy quite frankly need working through the system and we should not prevent them we should not allow the system to collapse however, the UK and other developed countries probably need to allow asset prices to drop, unemployment probably needs to rise we need re-balancing to take place. What we need to do is stop the worst case scenario, put safety nets in place invest in infrastructure but not panic. Can our democracy face these challenges that is the question.
It may become really bad, we may enter economic Armageddon however, at the moment in the West people aren't starving on the streets, people are not rioting except in Greece, but hell they do that when they get bored.
As I watched like millions of others Mr Obama taking his oath of office, listened to his beautiful words and his exquisite delivery, I thought but sir there are some things in life, some things which cannot be overcome by will alone, we are simply humans and we operate within certain rules. We can't stop the tide coming in, we can push it back we can reclaim land but it still comes in and it will take the land back eventually.
So as we over populate this land, as we struggle to feed the masses, we cannot give the whole world the standard of living the US has, we simply can't, and if we did then the world would not be worth living on. So what are we to do? We all watch American movies and they touch you like nothing else, or the best do, and we marvel at the houses, the standard of living yet we cannot give it to the world. Together we must encourage the world to have fewer and smaller families and if that were to be the case in a place like the middle east then I feel certain their anger would diminish. There are way too many young men with nothing to do, not enough land and not enough wealth so what do they do? Sadly they occasionally come into our lives through that little square box and frighten us by their other worldliness.
We ask ourselves how could they feel such anger yet occasionally when you feel very poor, when you feel like you have no chance in life then suddenly life changes. I once sat with a man in a South American city and he was a painter and decorator he had a small son, and he didn't have much, he didn't have great shoes. There I was within my pockets probably with one or two months salary for him and a bank card, yet we talked and he got up and walked across the square. Would I have done the same as him. Would I keep my dignity I ask you? Now there was a brave man, a truly brave man. Those are the stories we should tell more.
So let's set one thing straight, Japan in the 90s was not economic Armageddon if I hear one more idiot discussing how we need to avoid Japan's situation like it was the worst thing for a millennium I think I might hurt myself. It had issues with moderately rising unemployment loss in wealth due to depreciating asset values but IT WAS NOT a basket case. For Christ sake folks the UK in the 70s was in a far worse condition.
Second thing we need to set straight is that many of the imbalances in the economy quite frankly need working through the system and we should not prevent them we should not allow the system to collapse however, the UK and other developed countries probably need to allow asset prices to drop, unemployment probably needs to rise we need re-balancing to take place. What we need to do is stop the worst case scenario, put safety nets in place invest in infrastructure but not panic. Can our democracy face these challenges that is the question.
It may become really bad, we may enter economic Armageddon however, at the moment in the West people aren't starving on the streets, people are not rioting except in Greece, but hell they do that when they get bored.
As I watched like millions of others Mr Obama taking his oath of office, listened to his beautiful words and his exquisite delivery, I thought but sir there are some things in life, some things which cannot be overcome by will alone, we are simply humans and we operate within certain rules. We can't stop the tide coming in, we can push it back we can reclaim land but it still comes in and it will take the land back eventually.
So as we over populate this land, as we struggle to feed the masses, we cannot give the whole world the standard of living the US has, we simply can't, and if we did then the world would not be worth living on. So what are we to do? We all watch American movies and they touch you like nothing else, or the best do, and we marvel at the houses, the standard of living yet we cannot give it to the world. Together we must encourage the world to have fewer and smaller families and if that were to be the case in a place like the middle east then I feel certain their anger would diminish. There are way too many young men with nothing to do, not enough land and not enough wealth so what do they do? Sadly they occasionally come into our lives through that little square box and frighten us by their other worldliness.
We ask ourselves how could they feel such anger yet occasionally when you feel very poor, when you feel like you have no chance in life then suddenly life changes. I once sat with a man in a South American city and he was a painter and decorator he had a small son, and he didn't have much, he didn't have great shoes. There I was within my pockets probably with one or two months salary for him and a bank card, yet we talked and he got up and walked across the square. Would I have done the same as him. Would I keep my dignity I ask you? Now there was a brave man, a truly brave man. Those are the stories we should tell more.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
White Swan, Gray Swan, Black Swan - A critique
Black Swan is truly wonderful book from a man that is pushing himself to think, that is being brave enough to criticize and challenge the orthodoxy. It is an amazing thing from great thinkers that they are often breaking down barriers, they are having to challenge well accepted ways of thinking that they forget to be their own critics and talk about the dangers in their way of thinking. They don't have the time as all their energy is being used in breaking down barriers.
The Danger in Taleb's book is if we can't learn anything useful about the past, it is all stories he says and we can't predict the future so why should we even try. There is a great danger in this everything is a matter of luck, down to chance. Without doubt luck plays an enormous part in life, without doubt we fall for what he calls the narrative fallacy in terms of wanting to put stories around situations when perhaps there isn't one.
He forgets to mention or think about deep time. Ultimately the fate of mankind is predictable we will become extinct like most animals on his planet. We will all die, there will be earth quakes, there will be wars, so in some ways life is incredibly predictable the problem is in the time frames and then applying it to his first reason for investigating this area which is investing.
We should accept that we can't predict when things will happen, over the medium and short we are useless but over the very long with generalizations we are more accurate. He also doesn't talk about the fact there are patterns in life, there are trends, they change and evolve on an incredibly fluid basis, we have issues so really he falls for his own mechanical training.He is unhappy stepping outside of mathematical models and thinking about the patterns that exist in the world and how they move fluidly.
Some people spot these patterns and they use them and they are successful, sometimes the pattern doesn't turn out to be as expected, however, they still exist. The Germans knew the future was around tanks after the first world war, they guessed correctly, it was a correct prediction. Of course something else could have happened, a black swan however, they were correct.
Geronimo hiding in his last refuge with his twelve comrades in Mexico must have known all through his life it was inevitable that the white man was coming. The white man had technology and numbers it was inevitable. Of course a black swan in an epidemic could have come along but still there are patterns and trends to life which some of the Indians must surely have seen.
So in a way Taleb is a child of the thing he criticizes, he criticizes it beautifully with maths, he is beautifully read a wonderful mind, however, he fails to realize that life is full of patterns and the key point is in fact they are tenuous moving, difficult to catch on to prone to black swans and the future can only be guessed at except in certain areas over the very long term. Yet the patterns still exist, there are explanations to events we just don't always want to see them or report them and we make mistakes we are human.
In fact we should accept more vagueness, we should accept a lack of certainty we should acknowledge that sometimes maths is no use, sometimes we should trust fussy, open minded narrative and the human minds ability to spot patterns. They are prone to black swans, they will not be right but patterns do exist and there are reasons and explanations they are just not always the ones we like.
References:
I don't have f**k**g time, I have to work for a living, if you really must go buy something on Geronimo. If you must know about the tanks go get something on tanks and the first world war. Put Black Swan into Google.Happy?
The Danger in Taleb's book is if we can't learn anything useful about the past, it is all stories he says and we can't predict the future so why should we even try. There is a great danger in this everything is a matter of luck, down to chance. Without doubt luck plays an enormous part in life, without doubt we fall for what he calls the narrative fallacy in terms of wanting to put stories around situations when perhaps there isn't one.
He forgets to mention or think about deep time. Ultimately the fate of mankind is predictable we will become extinct like most animals on his planet. We will all die, there will be earth quakes, there will be wars, so in some ways life is incredibly predictable the problem is in the time frames and then applying it to his first reason for investigating this area which is investing.
We should accept that we can't predict when things will happen, over the medium and short we are useless but over the very long with generalizations we are more accurate. He also doesn't talk about the fact there are patterns in life, there are trends, they change and evolve on an incredibly fluid basis, we have issues so really he falls for his own mechanical training.He is unhappy stepping outside of mathematical models and thinking about the patterns that exist in the world and how they move fluidly.
Some people spot these patterns and they use them and they are successful, sometimes the pattern doesn't turn out to be as expected, however, they still exist. The Germans knew the future was around tanks after the first world war, they guessed correctly, it was a correct prediction. Of course something else could have happened, a black swan however, they were correct.
Geronimo hiding in his last refuge with his twelve comrades in Mexico must have known all through his life it was inevitable that the white man was coming. The white man had technology and numbers it was inevitable. Of course a black swan in an epidemic could have come along but still there are patterns and trends to life which some of the Indians must surely have seen.
So in a way Taleb is a child of the thing he criticizes, he criticizes it beautifully with maths, he is beautifully read a wonderful mind, however, he fails to realize that life is full of patterns and the key point is in fact they are tenuous moving, difficult to catch on to prone to black swans and the future can only be guessed at except in certain areas over the very long term. Yet the patterns still exist, there are explanations to events we just don't always want to see them or report them and we make mistakes we are human.
In fact we should accept more vagueness, we should accept a lack of certainty we should acknowledge that sometimes maths is no use, sometimes we should trust fussy, open minded narrative and the human minds ability to spot patterns. They are prone to black swans, they will not be right but patterns do exist and there are reasons and explanations they are just not always the ones we like.
References:
I don't have f**k**g time, I have to work for a living, if you really must go buy something on Geronimo. If you must know about the tanks go get something on tanks and the first world war. Put Black Swan into Google.Happy?
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Credit Crunch Humour
A man from a rather specific down to earth part of the UK said the following lines to me over the Christmas period,
'If these goddamn experts can't predict a credit crunch six months before it happens how the hell can they tell what the weather is going to be doing in fifty years time, global warming I don't believe it.'
Like many things in life most experts over complicate arguments to make themselves feel self important and intelligent, most arguments around the social sciences and sometimes even in science can be had on a way more basic level and the man on the street can be as likely to get it right as an esteemed Nobel prize winner.
The credit crunch at a simple level was should we be borrowing so much to spend on rubbish? How long can that go on? A very simple argument really.
Yet scientists will operate very hypocritically in that once they want to convince the public of something they will try and scare them by cutting out any sense of doubt in their estimation models. So without doubt it makes sense to try and conserve what resources we have, not be so wasteful, look at renewable forms of energy, but is global warming really going to happen, is the case really so clear, or are we simply focusing on the one factor which is less political and easier to explain.
Surely the more complex argument is we need to be eating different foods, we need to looking at how we can encourage smaller families as population growth combined with wealth growth is the true problem.
So will our form of capitalism based on ever increased wealth, which fuels the bribe that is democracy, I will make you richer and your kids so vote for me survive? I don't know if global warming will happen, but resource depletion will, competition over scarce resources will, a challenge to modern democracy will and the limits to growth will perhaps be reached.
This is my view though and not based on any empirical testing and i don't pretend to be a scientist who can prove it 100%, I leave that to others who cut out the doubt around prediction and there is always doubt, but we the public are too stupid to hear their doubts.
'If these goddamn experts can't predict a credit crunch six months before it happens how the hell can they tell what the weather is going to be doing in fifty years time, global warming I don't believe it.'
Like many things in life most experts over complicate arguments to make themselves feel self important and intelligent, most arguments around the social sciences and sometimes even in science can be had on a way more basic level and the man on the street can be as likely to get it right as an esteemed Nobel prize winner.
The credit crunch at a simple level was should we be borrowing so much to spend on rubbish? How long can that go on? A very simple argument really.
Yet scientists will operate very hypocritically in that once they want to convince the public of something they will try and scare them by cutting out any sense of doubt in their estimation models. So without doubt it makes sense to try and conserve what resources we have, not be so wasteful, look at renewable forms of energy, but is global warming really going to happen, is the case really so clear, or are we simply focusing on the one factor which is less political and easier to explain.
Surely the more complex argument is we need to be eating different foods, we need to looking at how we can encourage smaller families as population growth combined with wealth growth is the true problem.
So will our form of capitalism based on ever increased wealth, which fuels the bribe that is democracy, I will make you richer and your kids so vote for me survive? I don't know if global warming will happen, but resource depletion will, competition over scarce resources will, a challenge to modern democracy will and the limits to growth will perhaps be reached.
This is my view though and not based on any empirical testing and i don't pretend to be a scientist who can prove it 100%, I leave that to others who cut out the doubt around prediction and there is always doubt, but we the public are too stupid to hear their doubts.
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