I am not a doctor, but when I look at Europe I often think the first thing a doctor would do to ascertain the health of the patient is look at the periphery.
Italy, its stadiums have been shut because of problems with violence, unemployment is high, its companies are struggling to adapt to competition from the East, it is Europe’s weakest link they say.
Spain, undoubtedly living beyond its means, competitiveness collapsing, but the economy roles on.
Now as an imaginary doctor lets turn to look at the heart of Europe... France. As a Brit I have always had an interesting relationship with France. In many ways we will always feel closer to the Northern Europeans, who drink and would fight if they weren’t so well educated. The British aristocrats may superficially resemble the French in the clothes they wear, yet we are very different. In many ways that can make the relationship more interesting in others it can be more combatitive. The British have always had a grudging admiration for their style and the panache with which they play sport, and the French have always had an admiration for particular British charcters, whether they be Churchill, Thatcher, Livingston or Adam Smith.
It hasn’t received much news in the UK, but France has gone into a massive commercial deficit, which is truly worrying for Europe. The only large country which is managing to export in significant quantities to the far East is Germany, the UK one could argue could come back into balance if its consumption wasn’t maintained unnecessarily high, although, I am not so confident. The problem with France is consumption is relative low, economic growth low and it has gone into a commercial deficit.
So what are we to make of these problems?
Europe is struggling to compete and adjust to the changing global landscape, if this continues Europe itself could soon be fighting for its survival as anything more than a trading block if that.
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