Time marches on

In the 40s there were news reals that talked about the march of time. As one gets older one realizes how transitory life really is. We have all heard it so many times before, you think you are invincible when you are young and then when you are older.

It is not that which strikes me it is more the thought of losing those around me that I love and hold dear. The people that one has shared one's life with, will begin to fade and fall, and one might be left in a home alone hoping the next generation will provide support.

I think it is beginning to dawn on humanity, perhaps the most startling statistic of all, that life expectancy is rising but healthy life expectancy is not rising as quickly. Many of us will fade away and that is the statistical reality.

What choices will we have in the future one has to wonder, is it really better to spend one's life avoiding fatty food and smoking if it means we end up fading away with Alzheimer’s? What would those Roman warriors think of the modern world and how we seem to extend life at any cost. This is the really interesting or terrifying question. What choices will we have in the future... people fertile into their 100s, then it will be a population question, prolonging life so people have 30 years of poor health before they die.

They are not nice choices but the world may have to face them, or perhaps it will be live to their 100s with health. We must but wish it is so.

The Hatton boo boys

What is becoming of the country I love, that has given the world so much....

Hatton v Mayweather..

Exciting a contrast in styles... somebody to admire and then the booing started... why do we let these yobs and thugs ruin our image abroad... where has self restraint gone?...

Are we to be dominated by muslim extremists, kids in hoodies and yobs abroad?

The first significant country to ban slavery, a country that stood alone against hitler and a country run by the worst elements in our society.

Sugar Ray Leonard talked about his hurt and for yobs in my country to hurt people like that, I hang my head in shame.

Innovation

Education, banking systems, peace stability etc..... etc... our modern societies are based on a large number of factors and the world becomes ever more competitive the search for an advantage becomes ever more urgent.
We analyze how different countries cultivate success and one word crops more than anything else Innovation. I always to laugh when I hear businessmen discussing innovation, the systems required to run modern business efficiently, the discpline required to progress through the hierarchies often crush creativity.

We should not be talking about innovation we should be talking about creativity.

The crucial elements are education, risk, freedom, open minded thinking and enough people stimulating each other.... transferring this into $$$ will always be something else.. Anything else is just putting new words and buzz phrases to something older, stimulating creativity is not difficult, willing to embrace what is required to stimulate it is harder as it involves.... risk...... business is risk averse....

Business should cut the crap about eco systems, about how to stimulate innovation.... and simply say are we willing to take some risks and gambles... The bigger question is does modern society and shareholders allow companies to take risks..... we have to embrace risk if we want to be innovative.

China and the Environment

I bought the American publication Foreign Affairs this week, primarily because there was an article on the coming environmental collapse in China. I look around at the world and so much that we discuss seems to ignore the fact that we live as part of an eco system.

We preen ourselves, try and separate ourselves from nature as much as possible, we get embarrassed when we talk about toilets..we discuss to the nth degree how countries, education system can be run efficiently, and most importanly how to keep our wealth expanding. Yet we cannot escape it we are part of nature and part of an eco sytem.

You go to dinner parties and people discuss obscure books and artists and how they are going to transform their properties.. yet.... where is there any acknowledgement that the most important thing in this world is to live sustainably both from a consumption and a population perspective.

The Earth is suffering from a tragedy of the commons and our generation will perhaps be the most hated in the history of mankind. China's coming environment collapse..... are you sure it will be just China's?

Growth: Capitalism’s problem

When people talk about Marx, we struggle to look at him objectively and see him for what he was which was a great critic of 19th century capitalism. Left on this level and viewed in this way his material is interesting and insightful. As a predicator of history, of an idealised society, of how to cure society’s problems he was no better than a London cabbie and probably a lot worse.

The one problem he did articulate was capitalism’s need for continued growth and expansion. This problem is something we are suffering now, we need growth everything in the world depends on it. Growth comes, at the moment, from two things increased consumption and growing populations. Here lies the problem how can we, in an ever more crowded world, continue to see increased population growth, increased consumption and not run out of natural resources; not begin to push more people into environments where survival is marginal.

Marx talked about the declining rate of return of capital this is not our problem, our problem is more Malthusian. How can we continually extract more from less without inflicting damage on our rotating sphere? The Economist would say the market will find solutions, lets hope so. Our generation, living in the developed segment of society wherever you are is probably the most fortunate in the history of the homo sapiens or any of the other two legged up right chimp that has had the luck to make the earth his or her home.

Statistics and Risk.

When ancient man went out hunting buffalo or as it is thought by some trying to run down an animal, as two legs are more efficient than four over distance I wonder what he thought about risk.

Should I have some insurance? What will I do if I break a leg, what will happen to the mother of my children, well I think she is the mother, but who could be sure before DNA testing.

Now though we are all intent on reducing the risk in living, reduce the possibility of being in pain, yet life by its nature is risky, it is a dangerous world and always will be. We should take sensible precautions against unnecessary risks but mankind must accept that life is dangerous and the individuals, countries and governments are not capable of anticipating and dealing with every possible situation in which somebody is negatively effected. That is not to say that we should be complacent about issues and problems but we shouldn’t be obsessed about the obliteration of risk.

Statistics, I remember a friend of mine telling me that at school she had a psychometric test that came back with very negative results and she was told that she should therefore, have psychological treatment, she was devastated, and as far as I could see perfectly normal.
Statistics can help us understand the world and people however, there is no telling for exceptionalism, the people that go against the statistics are often the most remarkable. Statistics might help explain them but we will never completely understand them. Sometimes very different groups of exceptional people have more in common than we like to admit and perhaps in pre-anticipating one group we may infact damage the more positive group.

If we aren’t careful in the future our fear of risk and use of statistics might damage our societies creativity, and reduce the number of exceptional people who positively contribute to the world and our society.

The Closing of the Western Mind

Glaciers can suddenly melt and the water cascading down the mountains reaching for the open ocean can scar and transform a landscape for millions of years.

A fighter jet as it flies over a village is an amazing site. The sound of the after burner can send thrills or fear down your spine. Nobody but nobody can prevent been stirred by it..... it is one of the pieces of engineering that dramatically illustrates what man has accomplished and also what he can do positively and occasionally negatively if it is in the wrong hands.

The skills required and the number of specialists used to build, maintain, develop is phenomenal and they sit on the shoulders of millions of other thinker through the ages.

The point is though, in our modern world we are so dependent on specialists in many areas of our lives... To repair a television, to do the plumbing, to teach our children, to get oil out of the ground, to manage banks...... we have created a very complex civilisation which is dependent on millions of highly skilled and educated individuals..

The closing of the western mind would have a dramatic impact on the nations which allowed it to happen. Free thought and a broad education are an essential underpinning of a modern society.

We have a precedent 1400 years ago and its effects were dramatic and only the Muslim world and a few Nestorian Christians were able to preserve ancient mainly greek ideas and preserve them they did often adding to them richly.

Could it ever happen again, I worry sometimes, I really do.

Evanomics

The BBC economics correspondent has an interesting blog and he is brave enough to voice what most economists always think but never do, which is over the short run nothing is completely clear, in fact on occasions they have no idea what will happen.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/evandavis/

Then when something surprising happens they all say well with hindsight it was obvious, no it wasn't it never is. In something as complex as the economy with so many factors involved humans and computers are not yet capable of assessing all the variables and outcomes and correctly predicting with 90% certainty what will happen. In hindsight we can see what were the most important variables, but only in hindsight.

Interestingly though, he voices what all economists do... boring, boring, with the rise of China we are all going to get richer, heard it so many times...... now let’s cut to the chase and talk about something really interesting.........

Capitalism is based on always more, we will get richer because they will have more money to consume products which will drive industry...... got it... easy... now the question is do we have enough raw materials from food to oil, to metal to support such a high level of consumption and this isn't even talking about global warming. That is the key question.

Moving on... in a book I am reading at the moment it discusses the great mystery which is why man moved to agriculture. Hunter gatherers actually didn't work as hard and were better nourished than the first farmers. The debate seems to hinge on whether there was a food shortage due to climatic changes or perhaps population pressure. The key point is though during a pivotal point in the history of man we actually adopted a practice that was harder and made us poorer for perhaps several hundred if not a few thousand years.....

What will population pressure and resource pressure do to us over the next few hundred years, perhaps it will unleash a wave of creativity or perhaps we will actually get poorer over the short as we adopt practices to overcome this pressure.

What is Culture

At sophisticated dinners I am sometimes frustrated by what is classified as interesting and intellectual. Knowing about Shakespeare, that Kiss Me Kate comes from the Taming of the Shrew, knowing about wine, knowing about Opera that means you are interesting and intellectual.

It is just knowledge, nothing more and for me there are far more interesting things in the world. A brief encounter with someone well travelled with wisdom and life experience. A movie full of passion and life, yet as I sit through my DVDs of planet earth I feel nothing is quite as moving a mother nature.

It is a box set of 5 DVDs about the shape of world. A celebration of the planet: the forces that shape it and the animals that live in its many environments. The most powerful image in this collection of DVDs is the sight of a polar bear, struggling for survival as the ice melts having to swim further than it used to find nutrition. It lands on an Island where it finds a group of Walruses. These are immense creatures and only a Polar Bear which is close to starvation would dare attack an adult. It does, so and as the herd move seaward, the polar bear becomes more desperate. Finally the Walrus escapes to sea, and the starving, injured polar bear hobbles back to land and lies down to die. We leave the island as the Walruses return no longer afraid and the polar bear curls up, waiting for death.

What is culture and knowledge? Taking an interest in the world whether it be maths, opera, science, the habits of polar bears or the climate.

How Can you tell if something is ill? Europe?

I am not a doctor, but when I look at Europe I often think the first thing a doctor would do to ascertain the health of the patient is look at the periphery.

Italy, its stadiums have been shut because of problems with violence, unemployment is high, its companies are struggling to adapt to competition from the East, it is Europe’s weakest link they say.

Spain, undoubtedly living beyond its means, competitiveness collapsing, but the economy roles on.

Now as an imaginary doctor lets turn to look at the heart of Europe... France. As a Brit I have always had an interesting relationship with France. In many ways we will always feel closer to the Northern Europeans, who drink and would fight if they weren’t so well educated. The British aristocrats may superficially resemble the French in the clothes they wear, yet we are very different. In many ways that can make the relationship more interesting in others it can be more combatitive. The British have always had a grudging admiration for their style and the panache with which they play sport, and the French have always had an admiration for particular British charcters, whether they be Churchill, Thatcher, Livingston or Adam Smith.
It hasn’t received much news in the UK, but France has gone into a massive commercial deficit, which is truly worrying for Europe. The only large country which is managing to export in significant quantities to the far East is Germany, the UK one could argue could come back into balance if its consumption wasn’t maintained unnecessarily high, although, I am not so confident. The problem with France is consumption is relative low, economic growth low and it has gone into a commercial deficit.

So what are we to make of these problems?

Europe is struggling to compete and adjust to the changing global landscape, if this continues Europe itself could soon be fighting for its survival as anything more than a trading block if that.

Jared Diamond A Great Mind

Jared Diamond.

I will start with a slight criticism. As a speaker he isn't the most charismatic man I have ever listened to, however, he doesn't need to be.

I often think charisma is for those who don't have intelligent or interesting things to say, or for those who are speaking to an audience who lack concentration and mental ability.

When a person is as well educated, as open-minded as Mr Diamond, as well travelled and with an ability to explain complex concepts then charisma is simply unnecessary trimmings. There are few women or men you could apply that statement to.

I said to my partner that one of the most stimulating characteristics in a person is an interest in the world coupled with having an open mind. These characteristics generally become more prevalent the more educated one is, however, I have seen some lower ability people who have them and lacking in people of very high IQ or EQ. When you combine these characteristics with a mind filled with the potential and ability of Mr Diamond's the result is truly compelling.

He is truly one of the greats of our time.

One of his books should be read by anybody who claims to be educated or openminded and as a very minimum listen to his lecture here:

http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/page.asp?tip=1&id=3583

POPULATION, CONSUMPTION, POPULATION, CONSUMPTION and global warming.

I was listening to radio four, for anyone that is not a robot trawling the web and actually shock horror a human reading these few thoughts, the best thing about the BBC is the radio. Radio 4 is a bastion of quality, intellectual, free thinking discussion and was the home of Alistair Cook, perhaps the greatest radio correspondent of all time. If you are not British and passing through Heathrow, and not going nuts over the new security procedures then pick up one of the books from his radio show. The wisdom, turn of phrase will enchant you and bring a smile to your travel weary face.

On radio four they were discussing the coming year. One issue seemed to crop up frequently and that was global warming. They felt that finally the USA would get it, Arnie our hummer driving but with gas, bottom pinching robot beating hero and the plight of the polar bears would finally drive it, or should I say slap it or pinch it home to middle America…. Somehow having spent time in middle America I do wonder whether they will get it… but perhaps they will……

My anger as anyone that has read more than a few of these thoughts is the intelligentsia don’t really get it do they………. At the start of Planet Earth the wonderful BBC program about our planet, again something to pick up at heathrow, they say one hundred years ago the population was 1.5 billion it is now around 6……..

The problem if I can’t say it any more clearly is….

AVAILABLE LAND+AVAILABLE RESOURCES
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
POPULATION * (CONSUMPTION*ENERGY USED TO PRODUCE)


This all delivers global warming which reduces land available to produce and consumption which reduces available resources. By concentrating on one part of this equation we neglect the vital factor which is population…. Come on guys how can we begin to control population with a loose touch before something really starts going wrong… how can we move to a system where democracy isn’t based on always delivering more, where people don’t always want more, where we become more thoughtful consumers……… my aging mother nearly broke my heart this Christmas by saying sometimes the consumption at Christmas is obscene the waste in food, in packaging, the waste in products… she is right but how are we going to change this…???

Which part of the equation is going to be the biggest problem? Global warming is only part of the issue and it might not even be the most important….. the whole is the problem not one part…… it poses a challenge to the democratic liberal economic system that I love so….