The Global Shift

Historians write beautifully on the concept of deep history the movements that take generations to have their effects felt. Others perhaps view deep history as those small imperceptiable items which we don't really notice but have a huge effect on us and our society.

For me deep history, or the idea it conjures up, are the underlying movements which might be imperceptable in a life time but slowly over time they have a great effect on societies.

One of the deep trends in society occuring around us now is the rise of wealth around the world and particularly in quasi democratic countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and obviously China. Economics used to be called Political-Economy and its study was of both subjects. The economic challenge is something that is very noticeable however, its deeper challenge is on the political system that underpins Western society. More freedom more democracy and all those modern values, which are dear to me, are being challenged and will they lead to more successful and powerful countries than the quasi-democracies or dictatorships that have adopted some market related policies, yet politically remain stunted?

Perhaps in just 20 years the most powerful country in the world might be a dictatorship. We assume, in the West, that China will move to democracy as it becomes wealthy but there are not guarnatees.

The other shift that is occuring around us some of it visible some of it less so are the imbalances in the world economy are slowly being worked out, and with it the power of the US is waning. The long us induced boom is drawing to a close.

We talk about the world's only super power being the US; this may be factually true but practially the US is no longer a super power. It has greater influence than any other country on global affairs, yet it doesn't have the political will or financial muscle to exercise its influence as it once did. We are moving into a multi-polar world. The decline of the US is shown graphically by its inability to win the two wars it has most recently entered into; it is even having to enlist the help of the axes of evil to assit it.

Any history student or casual observer will note that the decline of an empire can be traumatic. The collapse of the USSR and the decline of the Roman empire all left states struggling to cope with the freedom and instability that was left by the declining giant... will we have the same problems now the US is declining? The US has always had a quasi empire not really occupying countries but more indirectlyly exercising its power. So perhaps the indirect nature of its power will also mean that its decline will have less of destabilising effect on the world.

Humans have terribly short memories which perhaps is in part due to our relatively short life spans, especially when compared to the age of humanity, to the oldest trees or to life itself. A biologist would also argue that short-term memory allows us to recover from trauma and deal with life and the intrinsic dangers that have always been a part of existing.

Any student of history will tell you though, that terrible things have happened in recorded history, most people on the street will have a feeling about some of them, but will have rarely considered them. During the 14th century in just a few years 30% of the population of Europe was devastated by the great plague. This is conservative and my feeling is, it was actually more like 50% as in our judgements we intrinsically never want to hear the worst.

Bad things happen to humanity and bad things will happen again, but will they happen in the relatively short time period of the next 50 years or so. Economists with their extremely short time frames and the youth of their subject never really noticed that Malthus has been right. As Jared Diamond indicated with his analysis of collapsed societies. Environmental pressure, coupled with population pressure has led to economic collapse in history and he worries for our future. He doesn't view this as global warming, in my interpretation, but more global environmental pressures.

I should preface these comments by saying terrible things are happening all over the world all the time, however, the global rich elite, those that produce the most literature and therefore, the books which will be read in the future and shape our view of a period have led relatively tranquil lives for the last 50 years. Will the next fifty years see the global rich list of countries suffer problems and will globally a greater number of countries suffer trauma than over the last 50 years. This is a better phrasing of the question.

Taking the short-term view then you would say the future will more than likely follow the recent past then it is looking fairly rosy..., if you take the longer term view you would say that we were probably in for a rough patch simply because history goes through cycles. Change is rarely painless, global population pressure will mount and there are going to be difficult moments...

What will the nature of the these problems and how bad will things get? I can't consider them I want to live and enjoy life, but a conservative judgement has to say the next 50 years are going to be turbulent and challenging.

Finally how will our declining global champion deal with its waning power? Will it go humbly into old age, or will it be the angry champion lashing out at its loss of influence and power?